The Evidence
Quantitative comparisons and the decision science research that underpins our approach.
Measurably better
Per-response comparison: “How will the appointment of Kevin Warsh as FED Chair change the composition of the FED's balance sheet?”
Grounded in research
Our approach is built on decades of research into collective intelligence, structured disagreement, and the aggregation of diverse expertise.
Structured aggregation of diverse opinions reduces decision error by ~49% vs individual or crowd averages.
Aggregating intuitive and analytical judgments improves estimation accuracy beyond homogeneous judgments.
Cognitively diverse groups consistently outperform homogeneous ‘best-expert’ groups in complex decision spaces.
Disagreeing perspectives boost aggregate accuracy on difficult tasks.
~49%
reduction in decision error through structured aggregation of diverse opinions
Navajas et al., 2018 · Nature Human Behaviour